Ir para o conteúdo principal

Escrever uma avaliação PREreview

When Do EV-Charging Load Forecasters and Controllers Transfer? A Cross-Dataset Study of Interval Calibration, Negative Transfer, and Forecast-Informed Control

Publicado
Servidor
Zenodo
DOI
10.5281/zenodo.20997806

Deep forecasting and learning-based control are widely proposed for electric-vehicle (EV) charging hubs, yet theliterature almost universally reports accuracy on a single dataset and rarely asks whether a model trained on onesite, or on synthetic data, retains skill elsewhere. We study transferability directly. A quantile long short-termmemory (LSTM) forecaster with conformally calibrated 90% prediction intervals is trained on a large UnitedKingdom multi-provider dataset (≈155k sessions, 2017–2022) and evaluated against the Caltech ACN-Data huband a SimPy-generated synthetic stream under four transfer directions and a zero-shot/fine-tune protocol. Threefindings emerge. First, point-forecast skill does not transfer: a model with native test R²=0.91 (UK) and R²=0.85(ACN) collapses to R²=0.06 synthetic→real and R²=−4.19 zero-shot across hubs, and even hub-specific LSTMsfail to beat a naive persistence baseline (Diebold–Mariano p=0.138; ACN persistence R²=0.863 vs native LSTMR²=0.852). Second, interval calibration is the property that survives: split-conformal recalibration restoresempirical coverage to near-nominal on the native distribution, and calibrated synthetic data lifts crossdistribution R² by up to +2.34. Third, model-predictive control built on forecasts generalises where pointaccuracy does not: cutting curtailment 25–55% versus a tuned PID controller, a single fixed MPC configurationholds the hard capacity constraint (at most one overload) across four hubs spanning 12–188 kWh even as theforecaster's cross-site skill ranges from R²=0.91 down to R²=−3.96 — the controller's safety guarantee transfersalthough the forecaster does not. We argue that EV-charging studies should report calibrated intervals and crosssite transfer as first-class results, and we release all metrics and code to support replication

Você pode escrever uma avaliação PREreview de When Do EV-Charging Load Forecasters and Controllers Transfer? A Cross-Dataset Study of Interval Calibration, Negative Transfer, and Forecast-Informed Control. Uma avaliação PREreview é uma avaliação de um preprint e pode variar de algumas frases a um parecer extenso, semelhante a um parecer de revisão por pares realizado por periódicos.

Antes de começar

We will ask you to log in with your ORCID iD. If you don’t have an iD, you can create one.

What is an ORCID iD?

An ORCID iD is a unique identifier that distinguishes you from everyone with the same or similar name.

Começar agora