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This paper constructs a theoretical system for condensed matter nuclear reactions, the central claim being that the fusion probability is determined by the pure geometric ratio of the confining space, not by the probability of overcoming the Coulomb barrier through kinetic energy. Starting from the local coherent unit at the microscopic scale, the theory derives the geometric fusion probability P_geom = V_N/V_LCU — the ratio of the nuclear force range volume to the confinement volume. For the typical confinement scale L ≈ 0.05 nm in carbon‑based systems, this probability is about 2.68×10⁻¹³, of the same order of magnitude as experimentally inferred values, without introducing any enhancement factor. The origin of this probability is that the LCU confines complete deuterium atoms (nucleus plus electron); the overlap of charge‑neutral probability clouds renders the Coulomb barrier bypassed, and the probability of nuclear coincidence upon collapse is determined by pure geometry, with the complete reaction equation D + D + 2e⁻ → ⁴He + 2e⁻ + coherent energy. On this basis, the wavefunction refresh frequency f_refresh is introduced, giving the fusion rate of a single local coherent unit as Γ_LCU = P_geom × f_refresh. The theory is further extended to mesoscopic and macroscopic scales: numerous local coherent units couple through coherent phonons and plasmons to form a network; the establishment of a broadcast signal allows units in the network to share a unified quantum observation mechanism. This paper argues that the essence of such “statistical synchronization” is not to enhance the fusion probability itself, but to increase the wavefunction refresh frequency — the core function of ordered energy is to pay the physical cost of quantum observation, not to provide kinetic energy for fusion. Based on this theoretical framework, the superlinear dependence of fusion power on coherent volume (P ∝ V^α, α>1) is derived, and the physical definition of the critical volume V_c is given. With very few assumptions and measurable physical quantities, this theory connects the entire chain from microscopic geometric probability to macroscopic fusion power.