Ir para o conteúdo principal

Escrever uma avaliação PREreview

A Diffusion Weighted Ensemble Framework for Robust Short-Horizon Global SST Forecasting from Multivariate GODAS Data

Publicado
Servidor
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202601.1971.v1

Accurate time series forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) is essential for understanding the ocean climate system and large-scale ocean circulation, yet it remains challenging due to regime-dependent variability and correlated errors across heterogeneous prediction models. This study addresses these challenges by formulating SST ensemble time series forecasting aggregation as a stochastic, sample-adaptive weighting problem. We propose a diffusion-conditioned ensemble framework in which heterogeneous base forecasters generate out-of-sample SST predictions that are combined through a noise-conditioned weighting network. The proposed framework produces convex, sample-specific mixture weights without requiring iterative reverse-time sampling. The approach is evaluated on short-horizon global SST forecasting using the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) reanalysis as a representative multivariate dataset. Under a controlled experimental protocol with fixed input windows and one-step-ahead prediction, the proposed method is compared against individual deep learning forecasters and conventional global pooling strategies, including uniform averaging and validation-optimized convex weighting. The results show that adaptive, diffusion-weighted aggregation yields consistent improvements in error metrics over the best single-model baseline and static pooling rules, with more pronounced gains in several mid- to high-latitude regimes. These findings indicate that stochastic, condition-dependent weighting provides an effective and computationally practical framework for enhancing the robustness of multivariate time series forecasting, with direct applicability to global SST prediction from large-scale geophysical reanalysis data.

Você pode escrever uma avaliação PREreview de A Diffusion Weighted Ensemble Framework for Robust Short-Horizon Global SST Forecasting from Multivariate GODAS Data. Uma avaliação PREreview é uma avaliação de um preprint e pode variar de algumas frases a um parecer extenso, semelhante a um parecer de revisão por pares realizado por periódicos.

Antes de começar

We will ask you to log in with your ORCID iD. If you don’t have an iD, you can create one.

What is an ORCID iD?

An ORCID iD is a unique identifier that distinguishes you from everyone with the same or similar name.

Começar agora