Ir para o conteúdo principal

Escrever uma avaliação PREreview

Volatility Forecasting Using GARCH Models in Emerging Stock Markets: A Study of India

Publicado
Servidor
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202509.0997.v1

This study investigates volatility forecasting in the Indian stock market by examining the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 indices from 2001 to 2025. Using econometric models including GARCH(1,1), EGARCH, TGARCH, and FIGARCH, the research evaluates their effectiveness in capturing volatility clustering, persistence, asymmetry, and long-memory effects. The results reveal that EGARCH and TGARCH outperform in addressing asymmetric volatility shocks, while GARCH(1,1) effectively models volatility clustering. FIGARCH demonstrates the presence of long-memory effects but with limited forecasting efficiency compared to other models. The findings carry significant implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers in emerging markets, providing insights into risk management, investment strategies, and systemic financial stability. This research contributes to the literature by offering comprehensive evidence on the comparative performance of volatility forecasting models in an emerging market context, particularly India.

Você pode escrever uma avaliação PREreview de Volatility Forecasting Using GARCH Models in Emerging Stock Markets: A Study of India. Uma avaliação PREreview é uma avaliação de um preprint e pode variar de algumas frases a um parecer extenso, semelhante a um parecer de revisão por pares realizado por periódicos.

Antes de começar

We will ask you to log in with your ORCID iD. If you don’t have an iD, you can create one.

What is an ORCID iD?

An ORCID iD is a unique identifier that distinguishes you from everyone with the same or similar name.

Começar agora