Aller directement au contenu principal

Rédiger un PREreview

Predictive Advantage, Regime Dependence, and Direction-Specific Causal Control in Kinetic Ising Dynamics

Publié
Serveur de preprints
Zenodo
DOI
10.5281/zenodo.19236658

We study how the choice of description affects predictive and causal information about future evolution in the two-dimensional kinetic Ising model. We report four empirical results together with a predictor–handle dissociation result. Fine descriptions based on locally exposed and junction-type defects outperform a block-variance coarse rival for predicting future domain-wall change in the ordered phase; the best organism is E≥3 + J, with predictive advantage ΔR² = +0.415 (95% CI [+0.389, +0.443]). (Axis 2, regime crossover) This advantage reverses sign in the disordered phase (+0.183 ordered, −0.064 disordered), showing that the fine-over-coarse advantage is regime-dependent. (Axis 3, target specificity) Under a fine-over-coarse ΔR² criterion, future domain-wall change ΔW is the target most specifically favoured by the fine description (ΔR² = +0.415); this is not merely the most predictable target in absolute terms. (Axis 4, causal control) Biasing the Glauber generator toward wall-reducing flips at exposed sites reduces future wall loss, while biasing against the same flips increases it; this direction-specific sign flip holds across all tested perturbation strengths (4/4). (Dissociation) The best predictor of ΔW—the coarse macro-state [W₀, Bmag] (R² = 0.378)—differs from the causal handle family (exposed-site structure, R² = 0.181), with gap +0.197. The best predictor and the best causal handle are empirically distinct within the same system at the same temperature.

Vous pouvez rédiger un PREreview de Predictive Advantage, Regime Dependence, and Direction-Specific Causal Control in Kinetic Ising Dynamics. Un PREreview est une évaluation d'un preprint et peut varier de quelques phrases à un rapport détaillé, semblable à un rapport d'évaluation par les pairs organisé par une revue.

Avant de commencer

Nous vous demanderons de vous connecter avec votre identifiant ORCID iD. Si vous n'en avez pas, vous pouvez en créer un.

Qu’est-ce qu’un ORCID iD ?

Un ORCID iD est un identifiant unique qui vous distingue de toute personne ayant le même nom ou nom similaire.

Commencer maintenant