Aller directement au contenu principal

Rédiger un PREreview

A Conditional-Density Approach Under Gaussian–Volterra Dynamics: Credit Term Structures and Finite-Rank Approximation

Publié
Serveur de preprints
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202609.0778.v1

Conditional-density models describe the full future law of a random time as information evolves, but explicit non-Markovian specifications of the resulting survival and density surfaces are difficult to obtain. We construct such surfaces from a latent quadratic Gaussian–Volterra path functional and an independent exponential threshold. Conditional survival is represented by a Laplace-transform martingale field. Malliavin calculus and Gaussian resolvent identities yield its Brownian coefficient in closed operator form, giving explicit dynamics for the conditional survival and density surfaces, a direct mass-compatibility identity, the moving-diagonal Azéma-supermartingale decomposition, and the predictable default intensity. Under a pricing measure, the same coefficients determine the forward-hazard curve, defaultable-bond volatility, and continuously paid CDS spread volatility. A one-Brownian-factor specification implies a rank-at-most-one instantaneous covariance matrix of CDS log-spread changes. We also establish finite-rank Galerkin convergence and perturbation stability. A stylized numerical study illustrates exact initial-curve fitting, local rank diagnostics, and recovery of a Volterra amplitude from a dynamic covariance target.

Vous pouvez rédiger un PREreview de A Conditional-Density Approach Under Gaussian–Volterra Dynamics: Credit Term Structures and Finite-Rank Approximation. Un PREreview est une évaluation d'un preprint et peut varier de quelques phrases à un rapport détaillé, semblable à un rapport d'évaluation par les pairs organisé par une revue.

Avant de commencer

Nous vous demanderons de vous connecter avec votre identifiant ORCID iD. Si vous n'en avez pas, vous pouvez en créer un.

Qu’est-ce qu’un ORCID iD ?

Un ORCID iD est un identifiant unique qui vous distingue de toute personne ayant le même nom ou nom similaire.

Commencer maintenant