Rédiger un PREreview

This paper investigates bifurcation dynamics in a fractional-order extension of the classical Susceptible–Latent–Breaking–Out model for computer virus propagation. The proposed framework incorporates two distinct transmission-related time delays and employs Caputo fractional derivatives of incommensurate orders, with the delays associated with infection rate and latent period selected as the primary bifurcation parameters. Due to the combined influence of multiple delays and incommensurate fractional exponents, the resulting system exhibits a complexity that goes beyond most existing models in the literature. By linearizing the model around its endemic equilibrium and analyzing the associated characteristic roots, we characterize how the system’s qualitative behavior depends on the magnitudes of the time delays, and establish explicit sufficient conditions for bifurcation to occur. In particular, the endemic equilibrium remains asymptotically stable as long as each delay stays below a certain critical value; once any delay exceeds its threshold, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, leading to sustained periodic oscillations in virus prevalence. Numerical simulations are provided to support the analytical results, and they show strong agreement between predicted and observed system responses. These findings enhance theoretical insight into bifurcation mechanisms in fractional-order delay models of epidemic dynamics on networks, and may offer useful guidance for designing containment strategies in large-scale interconnected systems.