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A Hybrid Systems Framework for Electric Vehicle Adoption: Microfoundations, Networks, and Filippov Dynamics

Publié
Serveur de preprints
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202601.0801.v1

Electric-vehicle (EV) diffusion exhibits nonlinear, path-dependent dynamics shaped by interacting economic, technological, and social constraints. This paper develops a unified hybrid-systems framework that captures these complexities by integrating microfounded household choice, capacity constrained firm behavior, local network spillovers, and multi-level policy intervention within a Filippov differential-inclusion structure. Households face heterogeneous preferences, liquidity limits, and network-mediated moral and informational influences; firms invest irreversibly under learning-by-doing and profitability thresholds; and national and local governments implement distinct financial and infrastructure policies subject to budget constraints. The resulting aggregate adoption dynamics feature endogenous switching, sliding modes at economic bottlenecks, network-amplified tipping, and hysteresis arising from irreversible investment. We establish conditions for the existence of Filippov solutions, derive network-dependent tipping thresholds, characterize sliding regimes at capacity and liquidity constraints, and show how network structure magnifies hysteresis and shapes the effectiveness of local versus national policy. Optimal-control analysis further demonstrates that national subsidies follow bang--bang patterns and that network-targeted local interventions minimize the fiscal cost of achieving regional tipping. The framework provides a complex-systems perspective on sustainable mobility transitions and clarifies why identical national policies can generate asynchronous regional outcomes. These results offer theoretical foundations for designing coordinated, cost-effective, and network-aware EV transition strategies.

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