Rédiger un PREreview

Ecuador is currently experiencing an unprecedented deterioration in public safety, with homicide rates rising drastically in recent years; however, national-level analyses often obscure the specific local dynamics of violence. This study analyzes the relationship between adverse socioeconomic indicators, specifically poverty and inequality, and homicide rates at a highly disaggregated territorial level: the administrative "circuits" (micro-territories) of Zone 8, which includes Guayaquil, Durán, and Samborondón. An exploratory ecological study was conducted across 67 of these micro-territories, utilizing administrative homicide records (2014–2024) and socioeconomic census data. The methodology involved Pearson correlation analyses and the classification of territories into prioritization quadrants to guide policy. Results reveal significant territorial heterogeneity and a strong positive correlation between homicide rates and both the poverty rate (r=0.785) and the Gini coefficient (r=0.768). Crucially, priority intervention quadrants were identified where high social exclusion and lethal violence converge. These findings demonstrate a structural link between socioeconomic precariousness and interpersonal violence in the coastal region. Consequently, the study concludes that effective security strategies must transcend exclusive reliance on police control to integrate targeted environmental, educational, and economic interventions, fostering a multisectoral social dialogue essential for recovering the social fabric.