This study investigates Yemen’s current carbon emission trends and explores strategic pathways for achieving significant reductions by 2050. The paper identifies challenges in the energy, transport, and industrial sectors while proposing a multi-phase strategy for low-carbon transition. The results suggest that implementing renewable energy initiatives and policy reforms could reduce Yemen’s emissions. Emission trends were simulated under multi-objective effective parameters to predict emission adoption scenarios. A predictive model has been created linking renewable capacity expansion to emission reduction, focused primarily on projections with limited policy evaluation.The primary objective of this modeling study is to assess the relationship between renewable energy expansion and carbon emissions in Yemen from 1990 to 2035, under different socio-economic and policy-driven scenarios. The research aims to identify the most effective pathways for achieving low-carbon growth in a fragile, conflict-affected context. A review of historical research on renewable energy and carbon emissions in Yemen from 1990 to 2025 was conducted. Despite the global shift toward renewable energy, Yemen remains highly dependent on fossil fuels, which has led to rising CO₂ emissions and increasing energy insecurity.The review synthesizes key studies addressing Yemen’s energy transition, renewable deployment, and emission trends, highlighting the progress, limitations, and existing research gaps that justify future modeling-based investigations. The review finds that while several works discuss renewable potentials and policy frameworks, few studies quantitatively analyze carbon-emission reduction under renewable energy expansion scenarios. This study provides a quantitative modeling framework for assessing the relationship between renewable energy expansion and carbon emission reduction in Yemen. Historical analysis (1990–2025) shows consistent emission growth driven by economic and demographic pressures. Simulation results for 2026–2035 confirm that renewable energy adoption—particularly under the High RE Scenario—could substantially reduce national emissions and foster sustainable economic recovery.