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Superstitions and economic activity: Evidence from eclipses in India

Publicada
Servidor
Lifecycle Journal
DOI
10.71240/lcyc.907461

This outcomes report reports results from a preregistered study (reference:10.71240/lcyc.789516). Eclipses are recurring, highly conspicuous events; they are also part of human culture, being mentioned in religious scriptures and belief systems. Said scriptures and beliefs assign certain attributes to eclipses, which can be linked with individual behaviour. Research into eclipses has observed a wide range of outcomes, from short-term variations in financial markets to long-term shifts in human capital. We empirically assess the association between observance of eclipse days and variations in market prices and payments data in India. We use high frequency daily data from the unified payments interface (UPI) from 2020 to 2024 and market prices data for rice and wheat from 2018 to 2019. While almanac-based eclipse dates showed no significant link to commodity prices, but show negative and statistically significant links with digital payments. The statistical significance of these are diluted when multiple hypothesis testing corrections are applied. In the panel data, visible solar eclipses were associated with higher retail rice prices, and lunar eclipses showed a short-term reduction in digital transaction volumes. We undertake heterogeneous groups analysis using data on state-specific superstitious beliefs around eclipses as well as religiosity data, which do not suggest a clear mechanism. We report a series of robustness and sensitivity tests. The findings suggest that superstitious beliefs may influence economic activity during these anomalous events, though the evidence remains mixed and context-dependent.

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