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Can intelligence outgrow biology?

Cosmic history has already crossed several thresholds: matter, complex chemistry, life, minds, culture, and artificial intelligence. Are these only disconnected accidents—or can earlier innovations make later transitions more accessible?

Sequential Cosmic Emergence turns that question into a testable comparison. The paper contrasts four rival explanations: contingent local evolution, a sequential-emergence model, a strong developmental model, and a Great Filter. It defines functional memory, predictive modelling, causal intervention, and material autonomy in operational terms.

Five comparative predictions and explicit failure conditions show what evidence would support or defeat the framework. The key claim is not that the Universe is literally alive or goal-directed, but that recurring functional innovations may alter the accessibility of later transitions, including a possible shift from biological to postbiological intelligence.

Status: independent preprint; peer review is not yet complete. Constructive criticism and attempts to falsify the framework are welcome.