This paper constructs a theoretical system for condensed matter nuclear reactions, with the core propositionthat fusion probability is determined by the pure geometric ratio of the confinement space rather than by theprobability of kinetic energy penetrating the Coulomb barrier. The theory starts from the local coherence unit atthe microscopic scale and derives the geometric fusion probability P_geom = V_N/V_LCU—the ratio of thenuclear force range volume to the confinement volume. For the typical confinement scale L≈0.05 nm in carbonbased systems, this probability is approximately 2.68×10⁻¹³, which lies in the same order of magnitude asexperimentally back-calculated values, requiring no introduction of any enhancement factors. On this basis, thewavefunction refresh frequency f_refresh is introduced, yielding the fusion rate of a single local coherence unit:Γ_LCU = P_geom × f_refresh. The theory is further extended to the mesoscopic and macroscopic levels: a largenumber of local coherence units couple via coherent phonons and plasmons to form a network, and theestablishment of the broadcast signal enables the units within the network to share a unified quantumobservation mechanism. This paper argues that the essence of this “statistical synchronization” is not toenhance the fusion probability itself but to elevate the wavefunction refresh frequency—the core function ofordered energy is to pay the physical cost of quantum observation, rather than to provide kinetic energy forfusion. Based on this theoretical framework, the superlinear dependence of fusion power on coherence volume(P ∝ V^α, α>1) is derived, and the physical definition of the critical volume V_c is provided. With minimalassumptions and measurable physical quantities, this theory connects the entire chain from microscopicgeometric probability to macroscopic fusion power.