Saltar al contenido principal

Escribe una PREreview

Beyond Correlation and Causation: How Misuse of a Statistical Maxim Hindered Research on Severe Adverse Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines

Publicada
Servidor
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202510.0089.v1

While the methodological principle “correlation does not imply causation” serves as a crucial safeguard in scientific inquiry, its overly restrictive application can impede legitimate investigative pathways and hinder the proper evaluation of emerging evidence. This phenomenon has been clearly observable in the COVID-19 vaccine safety discussions, where serious adverse events with temporal proximity to vaccination have been frequently rejected without comprehensive examination. This work invites reflection on how the inappropriate application of this methodological principle can obstruct scientific inquiry into adverse event surveillance, potentially affecting scientific credibility. This work applies Kuhnian paradigm theory to analyze how institutionalized frameworks operate simultaneously as mechanisms for knowledge advancement and as barriers to conceptual innovation, particularly in politically contested domains such as vaccine safety evaluation. Additionally, a case report is analyzed using Hill´s criteria for causality, in which an immunohistochemical method was used for the first time to evaluate whether mRNA-based vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 contributed to the cause of death. Results showed that three of the nine criteria demonstrated strong evidence of causality, four were partially fulfilled, and two were not fulfilled. Overall, the report provides approximately 55% causal evidence. This suggests, but does not prove, a causal relationship between the BNT162b2 vaccine and multifocal necrotizing encephalitis. The absence of the nucleocapsid protein does not provide definitive evidence to demonstrate a vaccine origin. An analytical method is described that can distinguish between the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the recombinant spike protein expressed following mRNA vaccination.

Puedes escribir una PREreview de Beyond Correlation and Causation: How Misuse of a Statistical Maxim Hindered Research on Severe Adverse Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines. Una PREreview es una revisión de un preprint y puede variar desde unas pocas oraciones hasta un extenso informe, similar a un informe de revisión por pares organizado por una revista.

Antes de comenzar

Te pediremos que inicies sesión con tu ORCID iD. Si no tienes un iD, puedes crear uno.

¿Qué es un ORCID iD?

Un ORCID iD es un identificador único que te distingue de otros/as con tu mismo nombre o uno similar.

Comenzar ahora