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Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on pre-existing antibodies and the subsequent infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has been shown to increase DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by all four serotypes in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3,412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced symptomatic DENV infections caused by DENV1 (n=139), DENV4 (n=133), DENV3 (n=54), DENV2 (n=9), or an undetermined serotype (n=39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since the last infection, cohort year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared to flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection increased disease risk of DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34-6.27) but not DENV1 (1.20, 0.72-1.99). Primary DENV infection or a DENV followed by ZIKV infection also increased DENV4 risk. We re-analyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus-immunity and pre- existing antibody titer differentially affected disease risk for incoming serotypes, increasing risk of DENV2 and DENV4, protecting against DENV1, and protecting at high titers but enhancing at low titers against DENV3. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, increases risk of certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be carefully considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

One-Sentence Summary

Dengue disease risk is differentially modulated depending on pre- existing immunity to dengue and Zika virus infections and the secondary infecting serotype.