Skip to main content

Write a PREreview

Electoral Transparency and Sequential Voter Rationality: A Dynamic Game-Theoretic Analysis of Implementing a Political Rating Agency

Posted
Server
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202511.1239.v1

Conventional electoral theory posits that transparency enhances accountability by enabling voters to make informed, rational decisions. However, empirical evidence from diverse national contexts reveals a persistent disconnect: the disclosure of corruption frequently fails to precipitate significant electoral repercussions. This apparent paradox has led some scholars to posit voter irrationality. This paper challenges this interpretation, contending instead that the absence of electoral sanctions against corrupt politicians arises from the inherent complexities of strategic environments, characterized by information asymmetry and ambiguous signaling. We develop a formal model employing dynamic game theory to analyze the strategic interactions between politicians and voters who update their beliefs through Bayesian learning. Our model demonstrates that electoral accountability emerges incrementally, contingent upon sequences of credible signals across multiple electoral cycles. To mitigate the pervasive challenges of adverse selection and moral hazard, we propose the establishment of an independent Political Rating Agency (PRA). This agency would furnish credible, standardized, and readily interpretable information. The efficacy of such a PRA is critically contingent upon its perceived credibility and the electorate's propensity to integrate its ratings into their decision-making calculus.

You can write a PREreview of Electoral Transparency and Sequential Voter Rationality: A Dynamic Game-Theoretic Analysis of Implementing a Political Rating Agency. A PREreview is a review of a preprint and can vary from a few sentences to a lengthy report, similar to a journal-organized peer-review report.

Before you start

We will ask you to log in with your ORCID iD. If you don’t have an iD, you can create one.

What is an ORCID iD?

An ORCID iD is a unique identifier that distinguishes you from everyone with the same or similar name.

Start now