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A Quantum Risk Management Framework (QRMF): Quantum Amplitude Estimation for VaR/CVaR, Entanglement-Based Systemic Risk Analytics, and Variational Risk Optimization

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Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202510.0505.v1

We present a rigorously derived Quantum Risk Management Framework (QRMF) integrating quantum amplitude estimation for tail risk metrics, entanglement-based systemic risk analytics, and variational quantum risk optimization. Our comprehensive approach encompasses three novel modules: (i) Quantum Risk Amplitude Estimation (QRAE) achieving quadratic sample complexity improvements over classical Monte Carlo for Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) computation through binary search with amplitude estimation subroutines; (ii) Quantum Systemic Risk Analysis (QSRA) encoding financial exposure networks into entangled bipartite states with purity-based early warning observables and QAOA partitioning for cascade mitigation; and (iii) Variational Quantum Risk Optimizer (VQRO) implementing constraint-aware portfolio optimization using risk-adjusted Hamiltonians with feasible-state ansätze and penalty-based formulations. We establish formal complexity theorems under explicit QRAM/QROM cost models, prove convergence guarantees for variational components under convex surrogate conditions, and demonstrate theoretical correspondence between entanglement purity responses and classical contagion path-sum sensitivities in linearized network models. The hybrid framework combines gate-model quantum circuits for amplitude estimation and entanglement encoding with variational quantum eigensolvers for optimization, validated through comprehensive simulations on synthetic financial networks and real market data. Extensive ablation studies on circuit depth versus accuracy trade-offs, noise resilience analysis, and resource scaling complement theoretical results, with all quantum amplitude estimation and entanglement simulations performed using Qiskit on classical hardware while baseline classical Monte Carlo and network centrality methods provide benchmarking baselines. This distinction ensures accurate interpretation of quantum advantages across the integrated risk management pipeline.

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