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Physics-Based Hazard Assessment Of Anthropogenic Seismicity

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Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202504.2596.v1

Earthquakes, which are deformations in earth’s crust are not yet well understood. Although historical understanding of earthquakes have roots in classical mechanics and relatively slow motion of classical systems (e.g. plate tectonics), modern tools of physics such as statistical mechanics and complexity can shed light on processes which trigger seismicity, anthropogenic and otherwise. In this study, after introducing the methods of analysis, I will particularly examine anthropogenic processes such as wastewater and CO2 injections which can trigger seismicity. The San Andreas Fault (SAF) and the lake-fillings nearby (Salton Sea) is chosen as a complex system of interest. Bayesian Hypothesis testing is used to better understand fault behaviors. As a case study, the SAF single-fault model with RMSE of 1.4 was improved to a two-fault model with RMSE of 1.

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