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اكتب مراجعة على PREreview

Regional Synchrony of COVID-19 Peaks and Mycoplasma Pneumoniae-Attributed Mortality Troughs and Rebounds in Children Aged 0–19 Years: a Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 in 204 Countries and Territories

نُشر
الخادم
Preprints.org
DOI
10.20944/preprints202610.2810.v1

Background: Mycoplasma pneumoniae, a leading cause of paediatric community-acquired pneumonia, nearly disappeared under COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and re-emerged with a delay relative to other respiratory pathogens. Whether its timing tracks national and regional COVID-19 waves has not been quantified globally. Methods: From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 Results Tool we extracted, for 204 countries and seven GBD super-regions, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at ages 0–19 years from lower respiratory infections attributable to Mycoplasma pneumoniae (2019–2023) and deaths and incident cases of COVID-19 (2020–2023; 2019 set to zero by definition). For each geography we located the COVID-19 peak year, the Mycoplasma trough (minimum 2020–2023) and the post-trough rebound maximum, computed the peak-to-peak interval, and tested Spearman correlations between COVID-19 peak intensity and trough depth or rebound amplitude, with lagged z-score cross-correlations and alternative COVID-19 calibres (all-ages deaths; 0–19-year incidence) as sensitivity analyses. Results: Globally, Mycoplasma-attributed deaths at ages 0–19 years fell from 27,388 in 2019 to a trough of 22,711 in 2021 (−17.1%) and partially recovered to 26,366 in 2023 (−3.7% versus 2019), while paediatric COVID-19 deaths peaked at 147,850 in 2021. The modal interval from the COVID-19 peak to the Mycoplasma rebound peak was +2 years in five of seven super-regions and in 115 of 204 countries (56%; median 2 years). COVID-19 peak intensity showed no significant correlation with trough depth or rebound amplitude (|r| ≤ 0.21; p ≥ 0.09). Because rebound maxima fell in 2023—the final data year—in six of seven super-regions, the +2-year interval is partly a right-censoring artefact. The pattern strengthened under all-ages COVID-19 mortality (64% of countries at +2 years), shifted to +1 year under 0–19-year incidence, and was unchanged under the DALY calibre. Conclusions: Paediatric Mycoplasma-attributed mortality troughs followed COVID-19 mortality peaks with a modal two-year lag, consistent with suppression and delayed re-emergence under pandemic interventions, but with no detectable intensity gradient. The timing signal is robust to all-ages mortality calibration, calibre-dependent for incidence, and bounded by right-censoring at 2023; continued surveillance is required to observe complete rebound cycles.

يمكنك كتابة مراجعة PREreview لـ Regional Synchrony of COVID-19 Peaks and Mycoplasma Pneumoniae-Attributed Mortality Troughs and Rebounds in Children Aged 0–19 Years: a Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 in 204 Countries and Territories. مراجعة PREreview هي مراجعة لمسودة بحثية أولية، ويمكن أن تتراوح بين بضع جمل وتقرير مطوّل، على غرار تقرير مراجعة الأقران الذي تنظمه المجلات العلمية.

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