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Influence of temperature on the incidence of dengue in the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil (2013 – 2022)

by Bernardo Geraldini, Igor Cavallini Johansen, and Marcelo Justus

Posted: February 27, 2024
Server: SciELO Preprints
DOI: 10.1590/scielopreprints.8117

Global dengue cases rise, notably in Brazil. This study analyzes temperature’s role in itsspread. By using monthly data and controlling for rainfall, linear regressions with ARIMA errorswere estimated in order to measure the influence of temperature on the incidence of denguein the city of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil. Findings reveal that a 1ºC increase in meantemperature leads to a cumulative increase of approximately 20% – 30% in dengue incidencewithin one to two months. Rainfall shows no discernible impact. Results highlight theimportance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-bornediseases.

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