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Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

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medRxiv
DOI
10.1101/2020.04.13.20064014

SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted primarily through close, person-to-person interactions. In the absence of a vaccine, interventions focused on physical distancing have been widely used to reduce community transmission. These physical distancing policies can only control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if they are able to reduce the amount of close interpersonal contact in a population. To quantify the impact of these policies over the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, we conducted three waves of contact surveys between March 22 and June 23, 2020. We find that rates of interpersonal contact have been dramatically reduced at all ages in the US, with an 82% (95% CI:80% - 83%) reduction in the average number of daily contacts observed during the first wave compared to pre-pandemic levels. We find that this decline reduced the reproduction number, R0, to below one in March and early April (0.66, 95% CI:0.35 - 0.88). However, with easing of physical distancing measures, we find increases in interpersonal contact rates over the subsequent two waves, pushing R0 above 1. We also find significant differences in numbers of reported contacts by age, gender, race and ethnicity. Certain demographic groups, including people under 45, males, and Black and Hispanic respondents, have significantly higher contact rates than the rest of the population. Tracking changes in interpersonal contact patterns can provide rapid assessments of the impact of physical distancing policies over the course of the pandemic and help identify at-risk populations.

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